Pinacle Sportsbook Sports News and Betting Lines

While many players have found Props easy to beat, this market has traditionally been the domain of smaller players. This year NFL Props have increased immensely in popularity at Pinnacle Sports, creating two new advantages. First, there is a lot more two-way action causing line moves. Second, other sportsbooks are trying to offer many NFL Props as well and some are even copying the Pinnacle Sports betting lines. These two factors combined mean that (1). Larger players can bet more on a single Prop; and (2). Smaller players can get a better price by shopping and watching the lines move. With Pinnacle Sports -108 style pricing on NFL Props and up to $1,000 game day limits, you will find consistent value and more often than not, the best price at Pinnacle Sports. 

The popularity of Super Bowl Props, which have been available for a long time now, has led to a gradual increase in the number of regular season games that proposition betting is available on. Most sports books like Pinnacle Sports regularly offer them on the Sunday/Monday night games for example. With so many chances to bet on these props, and with so many players betting on the wrong side through poor handicapping, sharp players can capitalize now more than ever on NFL props.

One of the most common props you will see is ‘Which team will score first?’ Many recreational players like betting on the favorite, regardless of the price. Frequently there are not enough professional prop players to keep the lines in shape, so the price on the dog will gradually creep up. I am not advocating that you blindly bet on the underdog on this prop - I just want you to understand why the opportunity is there.

The best way to price any prop is to find thousands of occurrences of similar situations. If you found enough similar games, you could simply count how many times a similar favorite scored first. There are however, two problems with this approach. First, many props do not have enough similar situations to give a meaningful comparison. Second, even if there are enough games to evaluate, it is too time consuming to collect and analyze all the data you want.

So what is a more practical way to price the ‘Which team will score first?’ prop? Whenever you are trying to price props, ask yourself: is there a logical way I can analyze this problem without looking at lots of games? With the right approach, most proposition bets can be priced just by using team and/or player statistics from NFL.com or http://football.pinnaclesports.com.

‘Which team will score first?’ actually has a straightforward solution. Look at the line for the first half of the game, and use it to figure out how many average points a team will score in the first half. For example, if the first-half line is ‘Dallas -3/Atlanta +3′ with a first half total of 23, the market price would ’suggest’ that the first-half score would be Dallas 13, Atlanta 10. You got that score by subtracting the spread (3) from the total (23), getting 20 total points. You then split the total points (20) between the two teams, and then add the spread (3) to the favorite.

Once you have your predicted score for the first half, the moneyline for the favorite to score first is -100 * (Favorite Score / Underdog Score). In this example, it would be -100 * (13/10), or -130 for Dallas to score first. The underdog is the opposite: +130 for Atlanta. While pricing Props is not an exact science, this approach will provide you with a very good estimate.

Why did I use the first half, instead of the game line? The first half-lines almost always favor the favorite by more than half the game-spread. For example, a 7-point favorite for the game might be a 4-point favorite for the first half. Better teams play to score on every possession in the first half, but may sacrifice scoring to eat-up time when winning in the second half. The first half line is a better reflection than the game line of what will happen early in the game.

One way you can improve this method slightly is to look at the moneyline price on the spread and total. For example, if the first half total were ‘Under 23 -110 / Over 23 +100)’, you might treat that as a total of ‘22.75′. Similarly, a first-half spread of -3 -110 / +3 +100 might be treated as -3.25.

Next week, we will take a look at some other popular NFL Props, including ‘Will the first score of the game be a TD? (Yes/No)’.

What are players betting at Pinnacle Sports this week?

Baltimore +3 +109 v. Cincinnati

As a bookmaker, there are times when you look at what the players do and think ‘how did they know the line would do that?’ In this case, we opened the Bengals as a 2-point favorite. The early sharps played the Bengals, and some of those later played the Ravens for a nice scalp AND middle at +3 +109.

While even the best players rarely get a position as nice as this, it does exemplify one concept: any side can be the sharp side, at the right price. Winning players have a knack for knowing which way a game will move, and establishing their position at a good number. When we review a risk profile for a game, we frequently see the same winning players getting the best price on a side, or sometimes on both sides of a game.

USC -12.5 -106 v. UCLA

As this game alone can conclude the BCS National Championship picture, it is not surprising that it is our most heavily traded game. We opened the Trojans at -11 -105, where the price drifted up to -13.5 due to public money. At that point, some sharps played UCLA plus the points, with a few buying the ‘14′.

Some casual players were surprised that USC is such a small favorite over the Bruins, which are only 6-5 this year. UCLA fares well in computer rankings thanks to a tough schedule including 9 games against Pac-10 opponents. Of all the conferences, the Pac-10 is rated as the strongest by Sagarin ratings. Where does Michigan and the Big Ten stand? At #4, behind the S.E.C. (#2) and the Big East (#3).

Arkansas +2.5 -104 v. Florida

In what might be the last piece of the BCS puzzle, we opened the ‘Gators as -3 +100 in the SEC title game. The number of bets and volume has been heavy, but flat on both sides. The market price crept up, forcing us to ‘move on air’. Our sharper players have not given us any clear guidance on this game.

It is a little unusual to see a higher ranked team at home that is favored by fewer than 3 points. If the home field advantage is worth about 3 points, it would suggest that Arkansas would be a small favorite on a neutral field. Why is this, if Arkansas is #9 in the BCS, compared to #4 for Florida? Injuries. The Gators might be without several starters including RB DeShawn Wynn (shoulder).

Dallas -3.5 -108 v. New York Giants

Coach Parcells keeps taking chances with his roster, and they keep paying off. The skeptics challenged his decision to sign Terrell Owens. 11 games later, with 8 TDs, 831 receiving yards and 46 first downs, that decision looks pretty good. Five weeks ago, Parcells benched 14-year veteran Drew Bledsoe in favor of Tony Romo. In Romo’s first 5 starts as an NFL QB, Dallas has gone 4-1. What is Parcells’ latest change? He gave former Pro-Bowl kicker Vanderjagt the boot in favor of Gramatica.

After opening the Cowboys as 3-point favorites, the early sharps kept backing Dallas, pushing the line up to -3.5. The line moved up, notwithstanding the public favoring the Giants by a 7:4 margin.

BCS National Championship: USC +5 -110 v. Ohio State

Although USC has not been selected for the big game yet, we can still trade it at Pinnacle Sports (all bets will be cancelled if USC does not play in the Championship game).

Trading for most games falls into recognizable patterns which are defined by the level of interest by different groups, from public to syndicates. This game is a bit of a puzzle so far, despite the early heavy volume. We have twice as many wagers on Ohio State, but nearly twice as many dollars on USC. With that type of profile, we would expect the sharps to be on USC. However, the sharps are split fairly evenly on this game. The heavier volume on the Trojans thus far seems to be just ‘noise’.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting

Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing and online casino gaming.

With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.

The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with PinnacleSports.com and get wagering today

Leading Online Sportsbook Lists Buckeyes As 5.5 Point Favorites In Title GameWILLEMSTAD, CURACAO (November 27, 2006)-Although the BCS Championship Game is still over one month away, college football fans and members of the media have been debating which teams deserve the opportunity to play for the national championship for weeks. After beating archrival Michigan in their regular season finale, Ohio State secured their spot atop the BCS rankings and earned the right to play in the title game. Meanwhile, Saturday night’s win over Notre Dame moved USC to number two in the BCS, leapfrogging previously second-ranked Michigan. With the Trojans needing only to beat cross-town rival UCLA to qualify for the BCS Championship Game, PinnacleSports.com became the first sportsbook in the world to offer a betting line on a potential national title game match-up between USC and Ohio State.

The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com first posted the betting line on USC and Ohio State meeting in the January 8th BCS Championship Game only minutes after the Trojans defeated Notre Dame Saturday night. PinnacleSports.com originally opened the game with Ohio State listed as a 4.5 point favorite, but after only one day of betting, the line has already moved and the Buckeyes are now favored by 5.5 points over the Trojans. The oddsmakers have also posted the over/under line on the total amount of points scored in the potential USC-Ohio State BCS Championship Game which is currently listed at 53 points.

‘The convincing 20 point victory over Notre Dame pushed USC into the second spot in the rankings, and barring an upset by 13.5 point underdogs UCLA this Saturday, the Trojans will be playing in its third consecutive BCS title game against undefeated Ohio State on January 8th,’ said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. ‘Although Pete Carroll’s Trojans have posted three consecutive wins over ranked teams, Ohio State will enter the BCS Championship Game with an unblemished record and the top spot in the rankings. If early betting is any indication, our players appear to believe that the Buckeyes will capture their second national title under head coach Jim Tressel.’

Current Odds: *All Odds Subject To Change*

BCS Championship Game USC vs. Ohio State
Ohio State -5.5 USC

Total Points USC vs. Ohio State
Over 53 points 10/11
Under 53 points 1/1

For more information and a complete list of odds, please visit http://www.pinnaclesports.com

About PinnacleSports.com
PinnacleSports.com (http://www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.

After his four touchdown performance Sunday night against the Broncos, San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson not only became the fastest player to 100 career TDs, but now stands only five scores behind the single-season touchdown record. Needing only six scores in his final six games to eclipse Shaun Alexander’s single-season mark of 28 touchdowns, barring injury, it’s almost guaranteed that Tomlinson will set a new standard for finding the end zone. With the Chargers’ running back scoring at a record-setting pace, PinnacleSports.com today announced odds on the total number of touchdowns scored by LaDainian Tomlinson in the 2006 regular season.The largest sports betting site on the Internet, PinnacleSports.com has posted a unique over/under line on how many times Tomlinson will find the end zone this season. After scoring an NFL best 19 times in his last six games, the oddsmakers at PinnacleSports.com believe LT will easily surpass Alexander’s year-old record of 28 touchdowns and set the number on Tomlinson’s regular season scores at an unbelievable 32.5. Bettors may wager on the Charger’s All-Pro back either exceeding 32.5 touchdowns on the season or falling short of that mark at -108 (i.e., win $100 for every $108 bet).

“With 23 total touchdowns in his first 10 regular season games, LaDainian Tomlinson is in hot pursuit of the single-season touchdown record,” said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com. “Although the thought of anyone scoring 32.5 touchdowns was previously unimaginable, LT has proved nothing can keep him out of the end zone by scoring 19 times in just six games.”

Current Odds: *All Odds Subject To Change*

How Many Regular Season Touchdowns Will LaDainian Tomlinson Score?

Over 32.5 touchdowns -108

Under 32.5 touchdowns -108

For a more information and a complete list of odds, please visit http://www.pinnaclesports.com.

About PinnacleSports.com

PinnacleSports.com (http://www.pinnaclesports.com) is the Internet’s largest sports betting site serving customers in more than 100 countries worldwide. Founded in 1998, PinnacleSports.com was the first sports book to introduce reduced margin wagering, using a -105 pricing model that gives bettors up to 50% better value on wagers than traditional bookmakers. With low minimum bet requirements and the highest maximum limits on the Web, PinnacleSports.com has earned an industry leading reputation for providing consistent value to the player, professional customer service and the quickest payouts online. Fully licensed and regulated in Curacao, the company offers a secure environment for sports betting, racing and casino gaming.

With the halfway point of the NFL season here, Pinnacle Sports betting’s NFL futures – revised after each week’s play – now accurately reflect the current standings. Not only does Pinnacle Sportsbetting offer odds to win the Superbowl, the AFC Championship, the NFC Championship, NFL division odds plus unique props on Indy or the Bears going undefeated but the Pinnacle Sportsbook offers all of these at low juice with odds that offer up to 50% better value than other sports books.

What we are seeing at Pinnacle Sportsbetting is that much of the betting on NFL futures is still a reflection of players’ perceptions of teams before the season began. If you can divorce yourself from this mindset and evaluate teams solely on the basis of this year’s play, that objectivity can give you an edge over many other players, whose judgment of futures is clouded.

The first step to accurately price NFL futures is determining how many games you expect each team to win. Many bettors are one step ahead on this point, already doing this via custom “power rankings”. If you’re not among them, you can borrow power ratings from other handicappers, or better yet, simply use the average of several handicappers’ ratings.

The main concept of power rating systems is to provide a ready-reckoner for spreads between any two teams by taking the difference in their ratings. For example, if the Ravens were rated 24 and Cincinnati were 22, the Ravens would be a 2-point favorite on a neutral field. Conventional wisdom suggests that home field advantage (HFA) adds an additional 3 points.

Using power ratings, you’re in a position to set a spread for every match-up a team has for the remainder of the season. From there, you can evaluate a team’s chance of winning each game by looking at the moneyline for that spread. For example, a 3-point favorite is about a -150 favorite, which translates to (-150/-250 = .60), i.e., a 60% chance of winning. Following this process for each team, bettors can find a good estimate of how many games each team will win in total this season, giving a basis for assessing futures.

To arrive at a sophisticated personalized assessment to measure against futures at sportbooks, it’s best to customize your ratings further by considering how each team’s rosters might change in the coming weeks. Most power ranking systems try to predict performance based on a team’s average during the season, but this might be skewed by the impact of a key player’s absence, or return from injury.

A final factor to consider is how a team will play once it has locked up its division, a playoff spot, or home field advantage. If there’s nothing at stake – not even a home field factor in the playoffs - teams tend to rest players and perform below expectations. In these instances, players can “fudge” the power rankings by making adjustments.

Once you determine how many games each team should win, certain divisional prices may jump out at you. If two teams have similar prices to win the division and you expect one to win a full half-game more, this probably represents a solid play.

In addition to futures on divisional champions, Pinnacle Sportsbook offers propositions on the Colts and the Bears to finish the regular season undefeated. If you’ve already set point spreads for each match-up, it’s easy to adapt this to price the odds on either team going undefeated by simply multiplying the percentages for each team winning their remaining games. For this type of prop, there will frequently be value betting the “No” despite laying heavy odds.

What are our players betting?

Oklahoma -3 -106 v. Texas A&M

Our opener of Oklahoma -3 -105 drew heavy, balanced action. While most sharps are undecided, a few have backed the Sooners. Oklahoma is still without RB Adrian Peterson, but Allen Patrick has replaced him adequately, running for 272 yards in his two starts.

LSU -3 -108 v. Tennessee

This was our most heavily traded college game of the week. We opened this game at LSU +1.5 and while there were fairly equal numbers of bets on both teams, the sharps have been all over LSU. The #8 Vols, despite being 7-1 have struggled in their last 2 games with 4th quarter comebacks. Of concern for Tennessee backers is the status of QB Erik Ainge’s ankle, which he injured last week against South Carolina.

Denver +2.5 +103 v. Pittsburgh

Every once in awhile, we are really surprised at how the public bets on a game. This is one of those instances – we opened Denver as a 1-point favorite, and took three bets on the Steelers for every one on the Broncos. The sharps started betting on Denver mid-week, but the heavier public volume is still causing this line to creep towards Pittsburgh -3.

Indianapolis +3 -107 v. New England

We initially opened the Patriots as a 1½ point favorite. Thanks to a dominating 31-7 performance against the Vikings on Monday night, the public and sharps alike are enamored with New England. The price quickly hit -3 due to a rare sharp/public consensus.

Will the Colts go 16-0? No -1600

Last week, the No was trading at -2000. Indy then defeated Denver as an underdog, which in theory should at least double the chances of them going undefeated. Since the line has stabilized at this price, it suggests the NO was too cheap earlier (or is too expensive now). Rather than playing the “Yes” at +1200, players might be better off betting moneylines on the Colts for the next 10 weeks.

Will the Ravens win the AFC North? Yes -120

Earlier this year, some of our sharper players backed Baltimore at prices as high as +380 for the division, and as high as +4700 to win the Super bowl. Players on the divisional bet could now scalp off their earlier play, but they are not doing this. Our sharper players don’t normally tend to hedge winning plays. Newer players are often tempted to hedge bets – i.e. those with +4700 on Baltimore could bet that Baltimore won’t make the playoffs (at +290) and play moneyline wagers against the Ravens for all of the post-season. The problem with doing this is that the player is getting juiced on each successive hedge-play. A better approach would be to bet a much smaller amount on the future, so that you can avoid hedging.

Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting

Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing and online casino gaming.

With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.

The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now with Pinnacle Sportsbook Betting and get wagering today!